Bitcoin's Game-Theoretic Proposition In The Face of Uncertainty

There exists a hierarchy of certainty in our understanding of the world. At its foundation lie perceptually self-evident facts, the immutable laws of nature, and our deepest personal convictions.

The success of Bitcoin is not guaranteed like a self-evident truth a force of nature, or a moral belief. It operates in a domain governed by game theory and complex systemic interactions. Its path to dominance rests on convergent incentive structures:
Bitcoin must prove superior to every competing currency through monetary natural selection. If any legacy money system could credibly demonstrate technical superiority (such as a guarantee of scarcity), Bitcoin would fail.

Yet Bitcoin remains inevitable to me because of the self-destructive incentives embedded in central banking systems, which inexorably push toward currency debasement.

The primary risk of Bitcoin lies not in identifiable challenges but in systemic blindspots - factors outside my current framework of understanding. These risks exist outside our epistemic frame entirely—not just unknown variables, but unknown categories of variables.

This shifts Bitcoin from a technological bet to a complex systems analysis, where success depends on the interplay between monetary physics, social coordination, and institutional incentives. This is why it is often said that one must spend hundreds of hours studying Bitcoin to really understand it.